Gold price in 2025: still rising, say experts

Will gold prices rise faster in 2025 than experts predict?

New records were set for gold prices in late April 2025:

• $3,498 per ounce,
• €3,032 per ounce.

Indeed, the first few weeks of 2025 have seen an explosive rally. The symbolic $3,000 mark was breached on 18 March, followed by €3,000 on 22 April.

Gold prices in 2025: chasing new highs

The short pause at the end of 2024 came to an end in the early days of 2025.

Gold in euros

The gold price in euros hit new highs almost weekly: €2,600, then €2,700, and finally €2,854 by 11 February — a 12.5% increase in just six weeks. A strengthening euro then slowed the pace slightly before the €3,000 barrier was crossed. With a year-on-year increase of 40%, few other assets can claim similar performance.

Gold in dollars

A similar bullish trend is playing out in dollars. Gold passed $2,800 on 1 February. But as Donald Trump’s trade war heats up again, markets are growing nervous. Between mid-March and the end of April, gold soared to $3,498 per ounce. That’s nearly 50% growth over twelve months — an astronomical rise.

Analyst forecasts: optimistic targets reached early

A quick scan of 2025 forecasts reveals few — if any — experts predicting a decline. With gold ending 2024 between $2,600 and $2,700 per ounce, the $3,000 milestone was clearly in focus.

Sub-$3,000 forecasts

• Goldman Sachs projected $2,900 by mid-2025 — a target already surpassed in Q1.
• JP Morgan was more cautious, forecasting $2,850 — an outlook now overdue for revision.
• Wisdom Tree, a London-based investment firm, forecasted $2,970 by Q2 2025.
• UBS expected gold to remain near end-2024 levels — a conservative call now well off the mark.

Those who called $3,000.

• Bank of America was among the most bullish, forecasting a move beyond $3,000 — a scenario that materialised less than two months into the new year.
• Citigroup revised its 6–12 month forecast in October, targeting $3,000 as well.

Analyst forecasts revised amid gold’s surge

With gold reaching $3,000 by March and a record $3,498 in April, forecasters have been forced to adjust.

Struggling to accept gold above $3,000

• In February, UBS raised its target to $3,200 — outdated just one month later. The Swiss bank now expects a correction, with gold stabilising at $3,000 by year-end.
• Morgan Stanley is predicting a return to $2,700 if a peace deal is struck in Ukraine.

Still bullish on gold price

• Goldman Sachs has upped its forecast to $3,300–$3,700, citing strong demand from central banks and large capital flows into gold ETFs.
• “This mad rise is only just beginning,” says Jean-François Faure (CEO, VeraCash), who believes gold has reasserted its role as money.

Why analysts were caught off guard by gold’s sharp rise

Trump’s aggressive trade policy

Back in Trump’s first term, his trade war with China had already lifted gold. Now, in the early days of Trump 2.0, it’s the entire globe under threat from new tariffs. Investors are rattled — and flocking to gold as a safe haven.

Interest rates cut in 2025

A widely shared view among analysts: gold’s continued rally is being driven by the ECB’s interest rate cuts. The US Federal Reserve, under pressure from President Trump, has so far held rates steady.
Lower rates devalue currencies and drive up gold prices — a key factor in the record highs of late 2024. In 2025, concerns over the US economy are also pushing investors away from the dollar and towards the euro. A weaker dollar means stronger gold.

Central banks gold buying

Analysts predict that geopolitical tensions — particularly Trump’s stance against the BRICS — will prompt renewed gold buying, especially from China.
Other nations could follow suit: Turkey, whose currency was hit during Trump’s first presidency, and Poland, which may boost its gold reserves if Russia gains ground in Ukraine.

Middle East instability

The Middle East may yet be shaken by major conflicts in 2025. Israel’s response to the October 7 attack is probably not yet over. The fall of power in Syria will provoke upheavals and retaliation from countries such as Iran, Russia and Turkey (not to mention Israel).

Will the war in Ukraine be settled in 24 hours, as Donald Trump has promised? In mid-February 2025, he got Vladimir Putin to agree to talk about a peace process.

Unexpected Market Pressure at the Start of 2025

Since Trump’s inauguration, the LBMA has recorded a surge in gold delivery requests to the US. The Bank of England has now doubled its delivery lead times for New York-bound bars.

Why the rush? Fears of new tariffs on precious metals, and rising demand for physical delivery under some ETF and futures contracts.